Who could benefit from India attacking pakistan

there are always states and non-state actors who either benefit or think they can benefit.

If India and Pakistan move toward open conflict (or even limited strikes like what we’re seeing after Pahalgam), the ripple effects spread beyond South Asia. Here’s a clear breakdown:

🌍 Who Could Benefit from India Attacking Pakistan?

1. The United States (Partially)

• Arms Sales: Conflict boosts sales of American defense hardware — both to India (which has been buying U.S. drones and artillery) and potentially to Pakistan’s allies.

• Weakening China’s Influence: If India is militarily active, it complicates China’s regional strategy and spreads Beijing’s attention thin between the Himalayas and the South China Sea.

• Counterterrorism Narrative: A strike against Pakistan-based groups lets the U.S. quietly nod along, especially if it targets outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba or Jaish-e-Mohammed.

2. Israel

• Defense Exports: India is one of Israel’s top defense customers. More conflict = more demand for drones, missile defense, and surveillance gear.

• Strategic Alignment: Israel benefits from deepening India’s alignment with anti-terror and counter-Islamist narratives that also serve Tel Aviv’s interests in the Middle East.

3. France

• Big Rafale Jet Supplier: France profits directly through weapons deals. War threats could push India to expand its fleet, buy more missiles, and sign more defense contracts.

• Geopolitical Relevance: France positions itself as an alternative defense partner to both the U.S. and Russia for India.

4. Russia (Quietly, But Less So Today)

• Defense Dependency: Even with Moscow now closer to China and Pakistan, India is still heavily reliant on Russian tanks, jets, and spare parts. Any escalation would revive Russia’s arms sales.

• Global Distraction: A South Asia war diverts global attention from Ukraine and weakens U.S. unity in Europe.

🚩 Who Loses Big If War Breaks Out?

• China: Though publicly close to Pakistan, Beijing doesn’t want a real war because:

  • It risks destabilizing its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

  • War would force China into uncomfortable choices if India hits Pakistani territory hard.

• Gulf Countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE): Both have heavy investments in Pakistan and growing ties with India. War hurts trade and oil stability.

• The Global Economy: War between two nuclear states in South Asia spikes global oil prices, insurance costs for shipping through the Arabian Sea, and creates risk in financial markets.

🤔 Hidden Winners (Non-State or Shadowy Interests)

• Global Arms Industry: War threats = multi-billion-dollar contracts.

• Radical Groups: Both jihadi groups and far-right militias thrive on heightened India-Pakistan hostility. It helps their recruitment and funding.

• Disinformation Networks: Media platforms, troll farms, and even political actors benefit from stoking nationalist sentiment during crises.